We scored the HN front page. Here's how wrong we are.

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Every 10 minutes a Fleet box pulls the live news.ycombinator.com front page and runs every story through the same model that scores user drafts. The numbers below are model output vs HN reality — not curated. Last snapshot 9 min ago · 30 stories.

ForesynCalibration over time — last 7 days of 10-min snapshots

Spearman ρ = ranking match — closer to 1, better.Top-10 hit rate = of our 10 highest-predicted, how many landed in HN's actual top-10.

ρ now 0.13(↑ +0.32)Top-10 now 40%(↑ +10pp)13 snapshots · 2.4 d window

Green band = useful zone (ρ ≥ 0.3); pink band = worse than chance. Each dot is one 10-minute snapshot — hover for exact values. Latest sample value floats at the right edge of each line.

Spearman ρ

0.13

MAE log-score

2.10

Top-10 hit rate

40%

Bias direction

under by 1.91 log

ρ closer to 1 = our ranking matches HN's. MAE on log: ~0.5 means typically off by ~50% on raw points. Top-10 hit rate: of our 10 highest-predicted, how many landed in HN's actual top-10. Bias direction: which way the average miss goes.

Best call

Plex's price hikes prove I was right to switch to Jellyfin

predicted 19 · actual 17 · 0.11 log off

Biggest underestimate

I returned to AWS and was reminded why I left

we said 3 · HN says 629 · missed by +5.06 log

Biggest overestimate

The people preserving the scientific practice of bird banding

we said 143 · HN says 16 · we overshot by 2.14 log

ForesynLive front page · predicted vs actual

1.		Hardware Attestation as Monopoly Enabler (grapheneos.social)
		predicted 235 · actual 731 (HN 3.1× higher) by ChuckMcM \| 268 comments

2.		Local AI needs to be the norm (unix.foo)
		predicted 206 · actual 413 (HN 2.0× higher) by cylo \| 214 comments

3.		Incident Report: CVE-2024-YIKES (nesbitt.io)
		predicted 9 · actual 339 (HN 37.7× higher) by miniBill \| 84 comments

4.		Running local models on an M4 with 24GB memory (jola.dev)
		predicted 6 · actual 14 (HN 2.3× higher) by shintoist \| 2 comments

5.		Obsidian plugin was abused to deploy a remote access trojan (cyber.netsecops.io)
		predicted 4 · actual 26 (HN 6.5× higher) by cmbailey \| 8 comments

6.		Why modern parents feel more sleep deprived than our ancestors did (bbc.com)
		predicted 12 · actual 54 (HN 4.5× higher) by 1659447091 \| 27 comments

7.		Ask HN: What are you working on? (May 2026)
		predicted 11 · actual 107 (HN 9.7× higher) by david927 \| 374 comments

8.		First tunnel element of the Fehmarnbelt Tunnel immersed (arup.com)
		predicted 3 · actual 21 (HN 7.0× higher) by robin_reala \| 5 comments

9.		Traces Of Humanity (tracesofhumanity.org)
		predicted 3 · actual 117 (HN 39.0× higher) by alex77456 \| 19 comments

10.		Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI (tomshardware.com)
		predicted 6 · actual 86 (HN 14.3× higher) by lemonberry \| 29 comments

11.		Guy Goma's Accidental BBC Interview Lives on After 20 Years (nytimes.com)
		predicted 6 · actual 18 (HN 3.0× higher) by nxobject \| 4 comments

12.		I returned to AWS and was reminded why I left (fourlightyears.blogspot.com)
		predicted 3 · actual 629 (HN 209.7× higher) by andrewstuart \| 462 comments

13.		Stop MitM on the first SSH connection, on any VPS or cloud provider (joachimschipper.nl)
		predicted 4 · actual 64 (HN 16.0× higher) by JoachimSchipper \| 37 comments

14.		Eight More 8-bit Era Microprocessors (2024) (thechipletter.substack.com)
		predicted 7 · actual 42 (HN 6.0× higher) by klelatti \| 11 comments

15.		The locals don't know (quarter--mile.com)
		predicted 56 · actual 80 (HN 1.4× higher) by herbertl \| 57 comments

16.		Lakebase architecture delivers faster Postgres writes (databricks.com)
		predicted 54 · actual 84 (HN 1.6× higher) by sp_from_db \| 24 comments

17.		The people preserving the scientific practice of bird banding (thenarwhal.ca)
		predicted 143 · actual 16 (we 8.9× higher) by bookofjoe \| 0 comments

18.		What's a mathematician to do? (2010) (mathoverflow.net)
		predicted 30 · actual 138 (HN 4.6× higher) by ipnon \| 72 comments

19.		Idempotency is easy until the second request is different (blog.dochia.dev)
		predicted 3 · actual 271 (HN 90.3× higher) by ludovicianul \| 173 comments

20.		Louis Rossmann offers to pay legal fees for a threatened OrcaSlicer developer (tomshardware.com)
		predicted 13 · actual 438 (HN 33.7× higher) by iancmceachern \| 233 comments

21.		Show HN: An index of indie web/blog indexes (theindex.fyi)
		predicted 7 · actual 90 (HN 12.9× higher) by rocketpastsix \| 28 comments

22.		Think Linear Algebra (2023) (allendowney.github.io)
		predicted 5 · actual 149 (HN 29.8× higher) by tamnd \| 17 comments

23.		Space Cadet Pinball on Linux (brennan.io)
		predicted 231 · actual 305 (HN 1.3× higher) by jandeboevrie \| 101 comments

24.		Task Paralysis and AI (g5t.de)
		predicted 5 · actual 180 (HN 36.0× higher) by MrGilbert \| 104 comments

25.		Walking slower? Your ears, not your knees, might be the problem (wsj.com)
		predicted 3 · actual 76 (HN 25.3× higher) by marc__1 \| 58 comments

26.		Spain has become one of Europe’s cheapest power markets (janrosenow.substack.com)
		predicted 3 · actual 135 (HN 45.0× higher) by marc__1 \| 112 comments

27.		YC's Biggest Scandals (ycombinator.fyi)
		predicted 4 · actual 215 (HN 53.8× higher) by laserduck \| 76 comments

28.		Plex's price hikes prove I was right to switch to Jellyfin (androidauthority.com)
		predicted 19 · actual 17 (we 1.1× higher) by Brajeshwar \| 16 comments

29.		9 Mothers (YC P26) Is Hiring (jobs.ashbyhq.com)
		predicted 3 · actual 1 (we 3.0× higher) by ukd1 \| 0 comments

30.		Shunting-Yard Animation (somethingorotherwhatever.com)
		predicted 15 · actual 54 (HN 3.6× higher) by s1291 \| 15 comments

What this measures, what it doesn't. We score every story on the live front page through our 39K-post HN corpus. Actual scores are still in flight — a story 1h old at 80 pts may end at 400; this snapshot freezes the moment of capture. Stories posted after our corpus ingest could in principle leak into their own kNN neighbors, but front-page items are usually hours old against a months-old corpus, so leak risk is small. We re-snapshot every 10 minutes via a Fleet systemd timer (Vercel Hobby crons cap at daily; the off-platform timer hits an authenticated manual-trigger path on the same endpoint).

What is this? · foresyn.ai

Not affiliated with Hacker News or Y Combinator. A Foresyn project. Predicted scores are model output, not real votes.